Question 1

What does this sentiment data actually show?

Accepted Answer

It aggregates the open positions of connected live trading accounts and splits them by direction, so you can see what proportion of the community is currently long versus short each pair, how much volume sits on each side, and the average price at which those positions were opened. It is a snapshot of positioning, not of opinion — it reflects trades people already have on, not what they say they intend to do.

Question 2

Is retail sentiment a contrarian indicator?

Accepted Answer

It is most often used that way, and the reasoning is sound at extremes: when the overwhelming majority of retail accounts are already long, most of the buying that could come from that group has already happened, and those positions become a supply of stop orders sitting below the market. But "the crowd is wrong" is not a mechanical rule. In a strong trend the crowd can be positioned correctly for a long time, and fading a reading of 60/40 is noise-trading.

Question 3

Why do the positions and lots percentages differ?

Accepted Answer

Because they measure different things. Positions counts traders, lots counts size. If 70% of accounts are long but only 40% of the volume is, a small number of accounts are holding much larger short positions — often a sign that the size on one side is more concentrated and more considered. When the two figures diverge sharply, the lots figure usually tells you more about where the real exposure sits.

Question 4

What counts as an extreme reading?

Accepted Answer

As a rough guide, anything beyond about 70/30 is worth noticing, and beyond 80/20 is genuinely crowded. Below 60/40 the market is close to balanced and the reading carries little information. What matters more than the absolute level is the change: a pair moving from 55% long to 80% long during a fall is a very different picture from one that has sat at 80% for a week.

Question 5

How representative is this of the whole market?

Accepted Answer

It is not, and treating it as such is the main way traders misuse it. This is a sample of retail accounts, which are a small fraction of a market where the BIS puts daily turnover at $9.6 trillion, dominated by banks, funds and corporates. Retail positioning tells you what one identifiable group is doing. That can be useful precisely because that group behaves predictably, but it is not "the market".

Question 6

How should I use it in practice?

Accepted Answer

As context rather than a trigger. Sentiment is most useful when it confirms or contradicts something you already have a reason to think — a crowded long into a resistance level you had already marked is a stronger signal than either observation alone. It works poorly as a standalone entry rule and offers nothing about timing, so pair it with a level and a plan for being wrong.

Pair	Price	Long %	Short %	Positions	Lots	Avg Long	Avg Short
EUR/USD	1.0872	62%	38%	18,422	41,280	1.0918	1.0841
GBP/USD	1.2634	71%	29%	12,907	26,140	1.2712	1.2588
USD/JPY	157.42	24%	76%	21,563	52,910	158.10	156.24
AUD/USD	0.6318	78%	22%	9,841	17,620	0.6392	0.6284
USD/CAD	1.3642	41%	59%	7,218	13,480	1.3701	1.3608
NZD/USD	0.5987	81%	19%	5,602	9,140	0.6048	0.5951
USD/CHF	0.9012	36%	64%	4,917	8,860	0.9068	0.8981
EUR/JPY	171.15	29%	71%	8,104	15,230	172.04	170.11
GBP/JPY	198.90	33%	67%	7,461	14,010	200.18	197.62
EUR/GBP	0.8605	48%	52%	3,982	6,710	0.8631	0.8589
XAU/USD	2338.40	84%	16%	26,310	48,920	2361.20	2312.75
BTC/USD	67412	69%	31%	11,248	4,180	68940	66120

Market Sentiment

Positioning by Pair

Most Crowded

Sentiment Detail

Understanding Market Sentiment

Frequently asked